MLB · Sat, May 16, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Final score: Boston Red Sox 3 – 2 Atlanta Braves. 6 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.69 | +7.1% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8 | 1.93 | +3.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.71 | +20.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.65 | +11.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +0.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.52 | +0.3% | 2 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Braves or Boston Red Soxthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jun 10, 2026 | Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays | 8 | 62.5% | View → |
| Tue, Jun 9, 2026 | Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 0.0% | View → |
| Tue, Jun 9, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox | 6 | 33.3% | View → |
| Mon, Jun 8, 2026 | Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Jun 7, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
| Sat, Jun 6, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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