What is Edge?
The percentage-point gap between your win probability and the book's implied probability. Your projected long-run advantage.
Edge is what positive EV is made of. A 5% edge at +100 is the same EV as a 2% edge at +400 because the price changes the leverage. The model published by NotaSportsGuru measures edge in percentage points and ranks every recommendation by it.
Example
Your model: 53% chance the over hits. Book implied probability: 50%. Edge = 3 percentage points.
Related terms
Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss a bet pays per dollar staked if you repeated it under the same odds and probability forever.
The probability of a result that a sportsbook's odds are pricing in. Calculated as one divided by the decimal odds.
Betting only when your estimated win probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability.
See edge applied to a real slate
NotaSportsGuru runs the math behind every published leg. Parlay of the Day, player props, match lines. With the model’s expected value and edge on every line.